- When making predictions of future outcomes after outlier results, think of the base rate probability of it happening - expect that outliers will regress back to the mean - ![[Thinking, Fast and Slow#^97mjby]] - Luck is an important factor ## Examples - When you do studies on people with depression, starting a lot of activities can correlate with their improvement because it's not the activity that provides the solution, but their natural gravitation back to normal levels